I wouldn’t bet anything that Representative Paul Ryan will run for president in 2016. I actually might be leaning in the other direction, because I don’t believe he wants the job at least not now. And besides lets face it, he’s never been elected statewide to anything or even run statewide for anything. He isn’t even in his party’s leadership with real power over what gets done and what is voted on the House floor. Yes he serves in Congress, but in the lower House, the House of Representatives where he serves in a very partisan Republican district.
The reason why the only presidential nominees that have come out of Congress have been Senators at least going back a hundred-sixty years, is because Senators represent the whole state. Senators tend to have at least some executive experience before arriving to the Senate. They also just don’t represent their party in the Senate, but represent their state as a whole. And in many cases they have to appeal to Independents and perhaps moderates in the other party to at least avoid a tough reelection. Representatives especially the stars, don’t have those issues and just need to avoid primaries.
So Representative Ryan would have a major resume problem as a presidential candidate, even if he were to win the GOP nomination. I think Governor of Wisconsin would be very attractive for him, assuming he doesn’t want to be a lifer in the House, as he put it and wants to make a real run for president. Especially if Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin loses tomorrow. And look to run for Governor in 2018 and perhaps the White House in 2020 or 2024, when he would only be in his fifties at that point.
When was the last time and sitting U.S. Representative even made a strong big for their party’s presidential nomination, let alone won it? 1988 maybe with Representative Dick Gephardt, but his campaign because he wasn’t able to appeal outside of the Midwest was fairly short. The same thing happen to him in 2004 and that is when he had just stepped down as House Minority Leader when Democrats failed to win back the House in 2002. There’s a reason why our president’s have tended to be executives for the most part with a few Senators as well. Because those people have to be able to appeal outside of their party’s base to be successful.